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2:00 PM central Friday 

Updates out but theres no more room on this page, make sure to check the thread, I'll work on consolidating some of this old stuff. 

8:20 am central Friday 

The market held up and actually went up in a few places. So that was nice for us.  

For the rest of the morning were just flipping cards for a couple of hours.  Margins are wide open right row. 

The dip is going to start to set in in the next hour or two.  So you're going to want to stop flipping around that time frame so you dont get caught up in the dip before the dip. 

Then potm packs come out, all the marketers swarm, we see a mini dip followed by a rise until they release a new pack and then we get another dip followed by a rise. It all comes to fruition Saturday night between 8 to 10 PM central. That's the magic resell hour. 

If you have any questions about any cards ask now, we can offload now but if you ask me 2 hours from now you're going to cost yourself some profit. 

I'll update once I see how this potm program works. 

Good luck out there. 

10:20 PM central Thursday 

Most of the middle and top end has held up nicely all night and is still in good sell ranges. The margins are wide open and excellent flipping is out there. Hard to get buys right now but theres some profit out there. 

Were starting to see some of these markets really move up, it's kind of hit or miss where it happened so far but it's a good sign that the rest of the market is on the way if they dont release a new pack tomorrow, aside from the scheduled potm/topps cards. There are still a couple of markets dipping down to good buy spots though too. 

I'm going to quit marketing for the day so last update for now.  I'd expect things to hold or dip slightly overnight. You'll see the odd market crash up or down overnight but most of the market dip tomorrow wont start until late morning/early afternoon usually. 

Make sure you're checking these order lists to see how long they are.  If theres only 5 to 10 cards left you may want to start holding. Some things already went up a bit but some of these headliners and old inning bosses look like they want to turn up sharply.  This is a riskier strategy and the gap will close at some point, but usually that means theres room to squeeze out a few more stubs. 

Good luck out there. 

5:10 PM central Thursday 

 Its all looking pretty good for 5 o'clock.  People will get home from work and start flipping and the orders start stacking. 

I'm expecting some sort of a tweet reveal, a brief 1 to 2 hour panic sale and then market rise after.  Your sell off points are between now and the tweet and then after the mini dip the tweet causes.  The market should be in good sell ranges most of the night though. The latest I'd sell off is 10 to 11 PM central.  

If you're holding through until Saturday make sure you're really confident in the market. And my advice is to not hold and to sell off slowly tonight. Theres quite a few cards I do believe will be much higher on Saturday, so feel free to PM with a question a certain card if you're considering holding overnight. But the safe answer is to sell off tonight so you dont get caught in whatever market trap SDS creates with a surprise pack.  I'm not holding everything, just markets I really believe in. 

Good luck out there. 

8:30 am thursday 

Everything held pretty well overnight. Better than I expected anyway. And I'm seeing some markets clear up which is the start of the upheaval 

Today is going to work similar to yesterday, ups and downs with an overall climb upwards for most markets, remember the hr derby and asg packs are still in stores so those wont get rare yet.  Just flip those for now. 

I wouldnt buy anything to hold for later at this point. We bought cheaper yesterday and these might come down to that price point in some areas, 94 and under markets are a little slower to clear out so some of those are still cheap. But where it's not cheap still let other people buy at these prices. Our job today is just to flip cards and wait on our cheap stuff. 

I was wrong, there is not a stream today. But that's okay, it's actually a very very good thing for us.  The market should just work for us all day long. 

If you're nervous about holding cards through the stream then take advantage of moments throughout the day to sell off.  I'll be holding but I've already made enough that if I'm wrong and sell the rest of this for half price I'm still in the clear.  Dont follow me down that path if you're nervous about it, it's easier for me to gamble with profit in my pocket. And theres no guarantee SDS wont release a surprise headliner tonight, I dont think they will but if they want to teach the marketers another lesson they will. 

Good luck out there today. 

10:15 PM central Wednesday

Most of these markets shaped up pretty nicely. I'd expect overnight for some markets to dip slightly, dont stress if you wake up and see stuff down again.  If you flipped a few things tonight there might be a few buy opportunities in the early morning. Hard to say which markets tank overnight and which ones dont.  But I kept back a quarter of my nest egg just in case I see something I like in the morning. 

Where we bought this morning was crazy low. Congrats to anybody who got palmers for 33 and visquels for 24. Some things like the Cabrera look like it might go either way overnight, but I think were through the heavy lifting here and we should see some good resale prices tomorrow night. Hopefully you flipped a bunch today too, I set my personal Wednesday best today on accident, I was mostly just buying. 

1st and 3rd are still struggling. Dont stress on these, it's just because theres cheap alternatives and theres a ton of Brett's that need to be flipped.  They crashed harder than everything else so it just takes longer for those to clean up. They will catch up to the rest of the market. The Brett already has a little tonight but it might dip again overnight. The Brett sets the edge for the rest of the 3rd base market. Were stuck waiting on it. 

The past 2 days have been crazy profitable. Hope you guys all made out like bandits.  

 

5:10 PM central Wednesday 

It's starting go up in several areas, I'd back off the buy and holds now and just flip or hold for later. If you bought up to this point you should be alright. 

Theres still a few markets well below where they should be. Stick to stuff you've been watching all day so you know if it's gone up or not.  

And I'd expect the hr derby cards and the asg cards to take a dip or stall as people log on and rip open packs. These older markets are starting to clean up though. 

 

8:30 am central, Wednesday. 

It's all flippable again. The muncy, brantley and the Castillo are the 3 low end markets that are going to be the fastest flippers. The hr derby cards crashed again so those should be nice and flippable. It looks like the asg closers are dropping margins in that position but theres still some good action there. 

Looks like anybody who stayed awake got some good deals but theres still some good ones out there. 

The market has already dropped a ton, it's going to go up from here until they release a pack. Friday the only thing scheduled so far is potm and topps cards. I dont believe other cards can be pulled in those packs. If they dont introduce headliners, ss packs, or some form of pack then the card scarcity will start to be created. And to be honest I'm not sure anybody is going to care about the potm unless it's a good card or a player from one of the big 4 cities. Nobody is going to be interested in a 95 that's going to be really expensive. I doubt those packs even sell out this month if they make it a 95 to 97.  And if they do it will take awhile. 

All over the forums right now people are concerned with another drop after the stub sale ends. But they've been crashing this market for 3 weeks straight now.  Systematically flooding the market with cards at specific moments in order to cause supply overflows.  We had a 3 week event coupled with 2 promos and a stub sale. 

I also dont think the stub sale was propping these markets up.  The markets been crashing since Friday night, if more people had bought stubs the market would've held through Saturday night at least. The logic that's going around the forums is actually illogical, the stub sale boost really ended Friday night.  Imo were not losing anything by the sale going away. 

They've been doing this to make selling stubs more attractive. Once they stub sale ends they dont really have a reason to continue that. It's actually better for SDS if the market goes up a bit from here. The more stuff is worth overall the more tax gets taken out per transaction. 

You need to be careful with this advice because certain markets may still get a pack release, if we all buy too much they will release a headliner to teach us a lesson. 

But the panic being spread by the other members isnt as logical as they make it out to be.  If you checked prices last night before the pack release you'll see that a lot of stuff was starting to get scarce.  Especially the top end cards that have been flooded this entire time.  1b has been crashed since the hafner came out, I'd expect it to go up the most, catcher at the low end also. The top end 3b is currently 44k and the top end ss is currently under 50 despite the fact hes an inning boss. These are not logical price ranges, they're born from card oversupplies, and a little mistake on the Omar during the event. These are not logical price ranges for the top end of these positions.   

If, big if, but if SDS allows card scarcity to be created in a few markets then the market as a whole is going to go up.  Theres a weekend coming up and no packs to really concern us on the schedule. 

This advice runs counter to what everybody else is saying and I understand it's difficult to contemplate.  I am not going to debate these topics, if you need clarification on a market mechanic feel free to ask. But I'm not here to debate, take the advice or leave it, I know it's not conventional thinking and I've already explained the market mechanics behind my thinking.  Take it or leave it. If you disagree with this advice simply sell off your inventory Thursday night and you'll be safe. 

Good luck out there.

5:15 PM central 

It's all still in pretty good margins.  I'm done marketing until after the ASG so this is the last update for awhile. I'd expect the market to be pretty empty while the game is on. I think most of us are going to watch it, especially after the derby hype.  

If it were me I'd sell off before I logged off to watch the game. The markets going to be left untended and people are still expecting the asg pack to be worthwhile so they will keep selling in anticipation. I think another dip is coming once that pack comes out.  

Crash it all. But still becareful with any market that's gone up 1 to 2k in the last couple hours.  1st and 3rd are selling slow also, buy cheap at those positions. 

They have removed the ss pack from the store. Personally I think it's a ploy to trick people into investing in them before they release another one.  But logic says the better cards in those packs will start to normalize. You're already starting to see it with the Brett.  I'm not investing in them personally because I think SDS crashes them again. But theres opportunity there for the brave. 

**update**

Some of these markets are bouncing back a little, I'd back off those and wait for them to come back down. Some others have dropped through the floor a second or third time and are safe to flip. Just beware of anything that's gone up 1 to 2k in the last hour or so, and target anything that's gone down 1 to 2k and has a profitable margin. 

**update**

Start being a little careful and check the order lists. It looks like it's all about to drop another notch or two. 

Margins are still wide open in half the markets but becareful at 1st and 3rd. 

**update**

Margins are wide open right now.  I wouldnt buy any of this to hold because more content is coming out but people have lost their minds with these margins. Expect them to close very quickly, do not hold this stuff.  But go crash this market. Especially the positions that aren't even in the HR derby pack. Those positions are just crashing out of fear of the upcoming asg pack which isnt tangible yet.

Crash it all

7/9/2019 6:20AM PDT

Thanks for notifiying

7/9/2019 6:25AM PDT

Hes right. Good stubs out there

7/9/2019 6:29AM PDT

What is this home run derby pack?

7/9/2019 6:57AM PDT

What is this home run derby pack?

Comment by rapala07
7/9/2019 6:57AM PDT

A waste of stubs. Were only interested in the market effect they're creating. 

7/9/2019 7:01AM PDT

Are these home run derby cards going to go up or down in price?

7/9/2019 7:04AM PDT

60k morning, I'll take it. 

7/9/2019 7:25AM PDT

Bought a lot but not much sold yet.  Hopefully that changes shortly.

7/9/2019 7:30AM PDT

Bought a lot but not much sold yet.  Hopefully that changes shortly.

Comment by SaveFarris
7/9/2019 7:30AM PDT

People are still unaware at work and the others are still sleeping. Sales will pick up soon. It's mostly just a ton of undercutters. I've sold a ton of stuff already this morning. Just have to fight to be the bottom order. I'd hyper focus just a few markets, I picked like 20 and I'm just cycling through those. 

7/9/2019 7:34AM PDT

Are these home run derby cards going to go up or down in price?

Comment by rapala07
7/9/2019 7:04AM PDT

Hard to say. The value of the cards themselves is lower than the pack price. I think they just go up and down and hover around the pack price. As it goes over 30 people will buy packs, right now it's down around 20 so not many new cards are being created. You're essentially buying the pack at a loss right now  

Edit to add. The value of these cards is not really in line with their pack price. Their current price is more where I'd put these cards end game. They're not really very good cards, more of a novelty item for fans. 

7/9/2019 7:36AM PDT

Plus the visions and contacts on those cards aren’t that great tbh. 

Cool card art, but def not end game cards here. 

7/9/2019 7:46AM PDT

They're not even "now game" cards mostly. :) They are for fans and people who like the players.

Exception: if you're a really good hitter who can spot the PCI, the low contact/vision won't be an issue and they have huge power. But pretty one-dimensional.

7/9/2019 7:48AM PDT

They're not even "now game" cards mostly. :) They are for fans and people who like the players.

Exception: if you're a really good hitter who can spot the PCI, the low contact/vision won't be an issue and they have huge power. But pretty one-dimensional.

Comment by Qeltar_
7/9/2019 7:48AM PDT

Is this because I came into your thread disagreeing?  Because you asked me to do that, and you were wrong. This doesnt mean were friendly here. 

I'm sure you'll have some smart reply to this but I dont care. I'm really just making this response so people reading this thread know you're just here riding coattails again.  Your advice is not welcome in my threads, you can post whatever you want. But you dont get my endorsement any further in my threads. 

Either make a market prediction, like you've been avoiding doing since yesterday, in both forums, or go work on your spreadsheet. I hear it needs an update. 

7/9/2019 8:09AM PDT

Start being a little careful and check the order lists. It looks like it's all about to drop another notch or two. 

Margins are still wide open in half the markets but becareful at 1st and 3rd. 

7/9/2019 9:30AM PDT
...

Hard to say. The value of the cards themselves is lower than the pack price. I think they just go up and down and hover around the pack price. As it goes over 30 people will buy packs, right now it's down around 20 so not many new cards are being created. You're essentially buying the pack at a loss right now  

Edit to add. The value of these cards is not really in line with their pack price. Their current price is more where I'd put these cards end game. They're not really very good cards, more of a novelty item for fans. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 7:36AM PDT

Wouldn’t be surprised if they drop around 15k when the stub sale is over today. Why’s everyone forgetting how much the stub sale effects these prices? 

7/9/2019 10:08AM PDT
...

Wouldn’t be surprised if they drop around 15k when the stub sale is over today. Why’s everyone forgetting how much the stub sale effects these prices? 

Comment by Mg_Wicked
7/9/2019 10:08AM PDT

Because it's really not at this point. And really hasnt since Friday night. I dont think very many people bought stubs. I think it's why they're crashing it all again. 

7/9/2019 10:22AM PDT
...

Because it's really not at this point. And really hasnt since Friday night. I dont think very many people bought stubs. I think it's why they're crashing it all again. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 10:22AM PDT

Yeah but the prices for every card went up with the stub sale. It’s just facts. And they’ll go down when it’s over at least by a little bit. If you don’t believe me just wait and you’ll see, I know people bought stubs/ buy stubs more when theirs a sale and they need some cuz hey you need 11k it’s only 7 bucks rn. 

7/9/2019 10:27AM PDT
...

Yeah but the prices for every card went up with the stub sale. It’s just facts. And they’ll go down when it’s over at least by a little bit. If you don’t believe me just wait and you’ll see, I know people bought stubs/ buy stubs more when theirs a sale and they need some cuz hey you need 11k it’s only 7 bucks rn. 

Comment by Mg_Wicked
7/9/2019 10:27AM PDT

No card valuations depend more on the overall amount of currency in circulation. 

Were seeing crash prices again and below for a reason. Sds has destroyed the value of the currency and nobody is replenishing it by buying stubs. The amount of stubs in circulation is down overall.  

The market would've held through Saturday night at least if the stub sale went well. And more likely through Sunday. It started crashing again Friday night. It didn't even last 24 hours. 

The large majority of people who buy stubs during a sale do it on the opening day. 

7/9/2019 10:32AM PDT
...

Because it's really not at this point. And really hasnt since Friday night. I dont think very many people bought stubs. I think it's why they're crashing it all again. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 10:22AM PDT

And yes it is effecting them at this point. Those HR derby 90 overall cards would only be 15k at the most if there was no stub sale. With base cards in a choice pack they are usually half the price of the choice pack in the market. Joc, Vlad, and Acuna will sit around 15k while the 96 Alonso (only useable card) sits around 25k. I’m willing to bet a whole lot of money on this 

7/9/2019 10:34AM PDT
...

No card valuations depend more on the overall amount of currency in circulation. 

Were seeing crash prices again and below for a reason. Sds has destroyed the value of the currency and nobody is replenishing it by buying stubs. The amount of stubs in circulation is down overall.  

The market would've held through Saturday night at least if the stub sale went well. And more likely through Sunday. It started crashing again Friday night. It didn't even last 24 hours. 

The large majority of people who buy stubs during a sale do it on the opening day. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 10:32AM PDT

Wait nooo you got this wrong dude, the market doesn’t crash with a stub sale. It never does. Prices always sky rocket in a stub sale. Miguel Cabrera 92 for example was around 20k before the stub sale now he’s back to 30k. He’ll be back down after the stub sale. It’s way more simple then you’re making it. Stub sale made the prices go up a little, and after the 10th they’ll be back down. I promise you

7/9/2019 10:36AM PDT
...

Wait nooo you got this wrong dude, the market doesn’t crash with a stub sale. It never does. Prices always sky rocket in a stub sale. Miguel Cabrera 92 for example was around 20k before the stub sale now he’s back to 30k. He’ll be back down after the stub sale. It’s way more simple then you’re making it. Stub sale made the prices go up a little, and after the 10th they’ll be back down. I promise you

Comment by Mg_Wicked
7/9/2019 10:36AM PDT

The prices skyrocketed on Friday and have been going down ever since. 

That Cabrera hasbeens at 20 and under most of the day  its at 17 currently. 

I get what you're saying, the market should go up during a sale, but that's only if people actually buy stubs. If they dont no new currency is added to circulation. 

Just reread my posts. I dont feel like retyping it all, I explained the market mechanics above. 

7/9/2019 10:48AM PDT

No offense rat but I'm not on this thread for debates and explaining stuff.  Take the advice or dont. I'm just trying to give people my insights. Take it for what it's worth. 

Edit to add, you just sent me a PM insulting me rat. Take any offense you want there smart guy...let's see how this plays out. Good luck to you. 

7/9/2019 10:52AM PDT

No offense rat but I'm not on this thread for debates and explaining stuff.  Take the advice or dont. I'm just trying to give people my insights. Take it for what it's worth. 

Edit to add, you just sent me a PM insulting me rat. Take any offense you want there smart guy...let's see how this plays out. Good luck to you. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 10:52AM PDT

Yeah I see that Miguel backs down. Looks like the market is already crashing, he was way more 2 days ago 

7/9/2019 10:54AM PDT

For anyone interested, the market as a whole went up about 23% (Buy Now) and 17% (Sell Now) in about 8 hours last Friday. I don't have any data yet to judge how this fared relative to other stub sales.

It is currently up 10% (Buy) and 4.5% (Sell) relative to before the stub sale. It will likely go below where it was before the sale tonight or Friday.

7/9/2019 10:54AM PDT

For anyone interested, the market as a whole went up about 23% (Buy Now) and 17% (Sell Now) in about 8 hours last Friday. I don't have any data yet to judge how this fared relative to other stub sales.

It is currently up 10% (Buy) and 4.5% (Sell) relative to before the stub sale. It will likely go below where it was before the sale tonight or Friday.

Comment by Qeltar_
7/9/2019 10:54AM PDT

It's already below where it was at that point. It was earlier this morning when I posted in your thread. 

Thanks for the update that the spreadsheet is still flawed at the middle and high ends. 

You might want to check the market history in a couple of those midrange cards. Just saying. 

Thank you for this contribution though. 

7/9/2019 10:57AM PDT

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