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On Friday I wrote a script that runs every three hours on my PC, downloading all the market prices and then averaging them and tracking the data. The script runs over the course of a minute to avoid slamming the server and it uses the API so I believe this follows the rules and is reasonable in its usage. If not, someone please let me know.

The market index is a simple average of the buy and sell prices of every card in the market (1,715 right now). While it's not fancy it does a decent job of showing how things are moving.

I manually captured two data points just as the stub sale started and then a couple of hours later, which are the first two points in the graph below. You can see the market shot up a good 20-25% overall due to the sale.

The graph also shows roughly how margins are (look at them in the first data point compared to now).

More interesting is that Sell Now prices dropped a great deal Sunday morning and Buy Now prices have yet to follow. Those lines are going to converge. My guess is that both will move, but Buy Now prices are mostly heading down today.

https://i.imgur.com/2Tvs35A.png

PS If you want to talk market stuff or just the game in general visit the MLB: The Market discord server. https://discord.gg/PmGSznE

7/7/2019 6:11AM PDT

I discovered that the "big drop" in prices Sunday morning was actually people removing their fake Vizquel bids before he got released. :) In fact, that data was messing everything up so I manually removed it.

Here's an updated chart that looks much more sane with Vizquel removed. Also added a margin line and legend.

Prices have now given back about 50% of their stub sale boost.

https://i.imgur.com/BLf6aty.png

7/9/2019 6:49AM PDT

You might want to update those prices again. This stuff is back down to crash prices in some areas. And farther down in a few. 

7/9/2019 6:52AM PDT

The prices are current as of 9 am EDT and direct from the API. It's an average intended to show the overall market, so it's not going show the effects of specific cards very much.

The presence of new cards that are valuable, starting with the 3 am data point, would tend to offset overall price decreases in the rest of the market by raising the average as a whole.

7/9/2019 6:55AM PDT

Uh huh. I'm just saying I'm looking at the market not a spreadsheet. These prices are down to crash prices or lower. And you're saying that they're above them by 50%  

If it's a pure market average it's mostly being filtered out by the golds and low end diamonds. The middle and high end are crashing. 

7/9/2019 7:00AM PDT

Uh huh. I'm just saying I'm looking at the market not a spreadsheet. These prices are down to crash prices or lower. And you're saying that they're above them by 50%  

If it's a pure market average it's mostly being filtered out by the golds and low end diamonds. The middle and high end are crashing. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 7:00AM PDT

I’m sure you’re both already well aware of this, but the 20 free The Show packs for all 12 event vouchers are likely to dump at least some additional diamonds out there. 

7/9/2019 7:03AM PDT
...

I’m sure you’re both already well aware of this, but the 20 free The Show packs for all 12 event vouchers are likely to dump at least some additional diamonds out there. 

Comment by ComebackLogic
7/9/2019 7:03AM PDT

The stuff that's crashing the hardest is headliners and ss pack cards, other event cards. LS market isnt getting hit as badly.  Not stuff that would be pulled in those packs. This is panic sale and people selling off what they've replaced. 

7/9/2019 7:29AM PDT
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The stuff that's crashing the hardest is headliners and ss pack cards, other event cards. LS market isnt getting hit as badly.  Not stuff that would be pulled in those packs. This is panic sale and people selling off what they've replaced. 

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 7:29AM PDT

You can pull previous headliners in The Show packs 👍

7/9/2019 8:21AM PDT
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You can pull previous headliners in The Show packs 👍

Comment by ComebackLogic
7/9/2019 8:21AM PDT

Yeah but the ss cards, the level 200 pack cards, and the most recent event cards are what's crashing the hardest. Or at least the quickest. The LS markets are catching up but they're still not crash prices yet. The 91 huff was at 5k for a second. 

No doubt those packs are having an affect also. But this is mostly panic sale and replacement sell offs. Just trust me on this one.  The LS market is coming down though. I'm starting to see it come close to crash prices on some cards. 

7/9/2019 8:27AM PDT
...

I’m sure you’re both already well aware of this, but the 20 free The Show packs for all 12 event vouchers are likely to dump at least some additional diamonds out there. 

Comment by ComebackLogic
7/9/2019 7:03AM PDT

Yeah this whole week is going to be a series of downers. Lots of opportunity for quick-flipping. Some opportunity but also much danger for hold-and-resell folks.

Friday is probably going to be ugly. :)

7/9/2019 9:59AM PDT

Umm I think it’s obvious all the buy nows will drop after today because of the stub sale. They dropped drastically last time, then went up with the stub sale. Now will drop again tomorrow. Don’t need your dumb *** chart it’s simple. 

7/9/2019 10:04AM PDT
...

Yeah this whole week is going to be a series of downers. Lots of opportunity for quick-flipping. Some opportunity but also much danger for hold-and-resell folks.

Friday is probably going to be ugly. :)

Comment by Qeltar_
7/9/2019 9:59AM PDT

Excellent market advice. Your first prediction since the spat #2. Unfortunately this looks remarkably like exactly what I've already predicted, other than the Friday is going to be ugly comment. And we know you read that thread earlier because you posted in there. 

I guess if you only use my own predictions reworded I can never disagree eh?

7/9/2019 10:27AM PDT
...

Excellent market advice. Your first prediction since the spat #2. Unfortunately this looks remarkably like exactly what I've already predicted, other than the Friday is going to be ugly comment. And we know you read that thread earlier because you posted in there. 

I guess if you only use my own predictions reworded I can never disagree eh?

Comment by ImurHucklebeary
7/9/2019 10:27AM PDT

You are a freaking maniac! If you want to give market advice go ahead but you are acting like a high school cheerleader with all your nonsense drama. most of us are grown men that like to play baseball and watch baseball and talk baseball and sometimes troll each other. You are just like a freaking online soap opera that won't go away. 

7/9/2019 10:39AM PDT
...

You are a freaking maniac! If you want to give market advice go ahead but you are acting like a high school cheerleader with all your nonsense drama. most of us are grown men that like to play baseball and watch baseball and talk baseball and sometimes troll each other. You are just like a freaking online soap opera that won't go away. 

Comment by DarthKDog09
7/9/2019 10:39AM PDT

100% agree 

7/9/2019 10:45AM PDT
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100% agree 

Comment by bellar3363
7/9/2019 10:45AM PDT

Darth I have you on block. I'm only seeing this because somebody is quoting you.  I really and truly dont care. And I wish youd just stop posting your feelings towards me so I dont have to read people quoting it.  You're insignificant, son.  Please just run along, just because I stopped playing with you to call out qeltar does not mean I'm suddenly interested in playing with the youngsters. 

For 1.  I'm well aware of how I'm acting right now, much like everytime I put you in your place, qeltar asked for this. Literally and figuratively. Metaphorically even. 

For 2. You've already tried to come troll my posts several times, I really dont care, man.  I dont think very many people on these forums take you seriously. Catch some vapors if you want but were done here man.  Keep posting if you want but its wasted breath. I really dont care. Congrats on getting 1 more response out of me. Although I dont think it was the one you were searching for. 

See this is a market thread smart guy. When you come in ranting about baseball it really just makes you look like you follow me around to troll me. Which you do. We both have very different ideas of what we consider pathetic. But I would put you right at the top of my list.  And I'm well aware I'm at the top of yours.  So keep talking if you must. I really dont care. 

I'm sorry if I broke your heart also. Maybe you and qeltar can get a chat going, some type of hucklebeary anonymous group or something. I can tell I've harmed you greatly. I'm not really sure how. And I apologize for whatever I've done to cause such a deep disturbance in your psyche. 

Well done Darth, well done. 

7/9/2019 11:06AM PDT
...

Yeah this whole week is going to be a series of downers. Lots of opportunity for quick-flipping. Some opportunity but also much danger for hold-and-resell folks.

Friday is probably going to be ugly. :)

Comment by Qeltar_
7/9/2019 9:59AM PDT

What’s happening Friday? There isn’t any new content this week as far as I know.

7/9/2019 12:13PM PDT
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What’s happening Friday? There isn’t any new content this week as far as I know.

Comment by djpearl23
7/9/2019 12:13PM PDT

POTM and Topps Now come out. Plus whatever else they haven't announced, who knows. :)

7/9/2019 12:31PM PDT
...

POTM and Topps Now come out. Plus whatever else they haven't announced, who knows. :)

Comment by Qeltar_
7/9/2019 12:31PM PDT

My bad, I completely forgot about both of those things. 

7/9/2019 12:34PM PDT
...

My bad, I completely forgot about both of those things. 

Comment by djpearl23
7/9/2019 12:34PM PDT

It's all good. :)

So the 6 pm run shows the market continuing to slowly drift downward. Sell prices have barely budged but buy prices were down 3% between 9 am and 6 pm. This means margins have gone down, which is typical during the day US time -- by about 14%.

I did notice a couple of cards having low inventory and moving up in price, like Jansen, likely since those packs are now out of the store.

Should be pretty crazy later tonight. I will be asleep. :)

7/9/2019 3:16PM PDT

Market as a whole dropped about 4-5% in the last 24 hours, most of that in the last 6 due to the new packs. Prices are down near where they were before the stub sale and they are likely to go lower still for the rest of the week with the stub sale ending and POTM packs on Friday.

Lots of deals out there, go get 'em! :)

7/10/2019 6:22AM PDT

Great work man. Very interesting to look at. 

Plus an average is just an average, a lot of players on here are only looking at a specific tier of the market. 

Lol to close up, I am genuinely impressed. 

P.s. it not plagerism when someone is using the same data as everyone else and having a different spin on it. It’s called being an analyst. And because they are working from the same data, sometimes the same conclusion happens. Other people are allowed to be smart too. 

7/10/2019 6:30AM PDT

Great work man. Very interesting to look at. 

Plus an average is just an average, a lot of players on here are only looking at a specific tier of the market. 

Lol to close up, I am genuinely impressed. 

P.s. it not plagerism when someone is using the same data as everyone else and having a different spin on it. It’s called being an analyst. And because they are working from the same data, sometimes the same conclusion happens. Other people are allowed to be smart too. 

Comment by MarinerMatt01
7/10/2019 6:30AM PDT

You do understand that the majority of the cards are on the low end and that's why the average gets skewed right?  The low end cant actually drop anymore. So it's kind of irrelevant to the rest of the market place. Those cards cant go below 5k and 1k.  It's the rest of the market that moves.  When you filter an average by using market numbers of cards that literally cant go down you're not getting a real market average. 

His spreadsheet updates every 3 hours. Theres a reason why he seems 3 hours late on all the advice. 

You're right it's not plagiarism if we come to the same conclusion separately. This dude refused to make any market predictions until I did. And once I did his came out within an hour each time, sometimes within minutes. And it was the same thing I said just reworded. 

Today's prediction he made is the first one hes made on his own since our little spat. And hes wrong on that too.  You know why?  Because I didn't make my predictions until after he posted. 

7/10/2019 6:44AM PDT

Market as a whole dropped about 4-5% in the last 24 hours, most of that in the last 6 due to the new packs. Prices are down near where they were before the stub sale and they are likely to go lower still for the rest of the week with the stub sale ending and POTM packs on Friday.

Lots of deals out there, go get 'em! :)

Comment by Qeltar_
7/10/2019 6:22AM PDT

Ah your first real prediction, and I just predicted the opposite. Let's see how this plays out Saturday night shall we. 

7/10/2019 6:45AM PDT

Let's take this a step further. I called out positions and promos I thought would be affected. 

Which positions do you think go up or down?

Which promos do you think go up or down?

How do you think this upcoming potm program sells?

7/10/2019 6:48AM PDT

Great work man. Very interesting to look at. 

Plus an average is just an average, a lot of players on here are only looking at a specific tier of the market. 

Lol to close up, I am genuinely impressed. 

P.s. it not plagerism when someone is using the same data as everyone else and having a different spin on it. It’s called being an analyst. And because they are working from the same data, sometimes the same conclusion happens. Other people are allowed to be smart too. 

Comment by MarinerMatt01
7/10/2019 6:30AM PDT

Hey, glad you like it. It's just a simple average to give a general feel for what the market is doing as a whole. Pretty easy to program, surprised nobody did it before. :)

I'm considering making a higher-end index for just the higher cards, but I'm not sure it's really needed. The fact that it's an average automatically weights the higher cards much more than the lower ones. For example, if Kenley Jansen moves down by 10,000, that is worth 100 gold cards moving up by 100. It all comes out in the wash, and it will be more clear once there's more data, not just a few days' worth.

If you like market talk, join us in our Discord. Over 140 members now, we've got a nice little community going. Lots of chat, almost no drama, the way it should be. :) https://discord.gg/PmGSznE

7/10/2019 7:13AM PDT

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