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**Update**  Tuesday 11 am central 

Were expecting the RS rewards packs today, remember that's going to cause some oversupply issues so there will be some good buys. But also people are rebuying their teams for the new season. So it should be a good day for buying and selling. The market will be very chaotic, I'd stick to your normal markets so you know what's a good price. Today is going to be one of those days where margin chasing causes you to break even half the time. 

The market will drop down today and steady some Wednesday night and then Thursday night will be the prime selling point, unless they do a Thursday headliner. 

Be careful how much you buy today for several reasons, a surprise Thursday headliner could steal our sale moment. But also becareful because these markets are going to be really volatile. Make sure you're buying at the low end. You're not buying as much so make sure you get it cheap to maximize profits. 

The 95 plus markets could potentially blow up out of control. If you have sell orders up for average profit margins I might pull them down and wait for tonight.  Anything under that should take a little shock. 

The level 200 pack cards shouldn't be affected by this too much. People grinding new RS seasons means more programs stars are being earned, so we could see them go down because of that. But I dont think the dip will affect them at all, they're already so much lower than the alternatives at their position that they cant affect these. If these go down its purely due to people grinding games, if you see them drop 2 to 3k I wouldnt be scared, I'd start buying. 

Good luck out there today. 

**Update**  Sunday morning 8 am central

All the markets held overnight and the low end even steadied a bit. This is a good sign for today's sales.  Theres some good buys early in the morning in my markets, make sure you check yours. 

Typically on sundays the market is pretty slow until people get home from church, the market doesnt really pick up until around 2 PM central. From there it should be a nice steady very small tiny rise throughout the evening.  Try to be finished selling off by 8pm central. Sundays the market goes dead a little earlier, around 10 PM it stagnates. Remember to sell off tonight, upcoming Monday and Tuesday downturn with new RS pack rewards mid week. What I do during the downtime is just invest in 5k diamonds just in case they go up. My strategy this week is to pick up the cheap all stars that didn't get the event his time around. I figure they will out of one of these other events. And for 5k I cant lose anyway. 

A lot of what happens at the low end depends on the level 200 pack cards. They came down a little overnight, keep an eye on these. If they start dropping consistently the low end is going to come with it, especially those 3 positions. I think it's just early and people will pick these up when they get online, but if these start drop consistently for over an hour it might be time to start offloading those 3 positions at 94 and under. I dont think it's going to happen today but if it does just be aware of the signs and your exit plan. 

Good luck out there today. 

**Update** Saturday morning

Some good buys early this morning. Everything held steady overnight at the mid and top ends, so if you invested yesterday those should be safe. The level 200 packs evened out and came down a little, the preorder cards did as well. Then the preorder cards bring the rest of the low end down. I'm pretty sure the low end is safe but be a little careful at SP, CP, 3B, 1B still. Those markets will go up slower than the rest at the low end, there will be profit it will just take longer. 3b and 1b especially, we just dont use more than 1 so those markets get affected a little worse than the others. 

We should see a good rise tonight though, and even Sunday should be a decent offload day. 

Remember were getting midweek RS reward packs next week so sell off this weekend. Prime selling time should be tonight between 8pm to 10 PM central. 

4th inning bosses-  were seeing some dip down to 95 already on these and the order lists make it look like they want to drop to 90 today.  Probably somewhere more in the middle but these are on the way down I think.  There is a chance that peoples drive to reach WS rank empties these out at different points today, dont worry about it if it does, a lot of these are being created this weekend and most of us know they will be cheaper next weekend unless a stub sale gets dropped. 

Good luck out there today. 

**Update** Thursday 3:30 PM central

It looks like the event cards, 97 vizquel, 94 hafner, wont be available this week through event stubs. If that's the case we dont have to worry about these this week, expect those positions to come down over the following 2 weeks though, 1b next week and SS the following week.  That vizquel is a nice looking card, for a lot of reasons I think this and the Ripken will get cheap over the next 2 weeks. Affordable shortstops are on the way. 

The 87 Davis at 1b is going to wreck that market 87 and under probably. I'd expect 1b to take a large downturn over the next 2 weeks. 

RF and SP are going to get hit harder than the others due to the headliners being justin Upton and Jim palmer. They both look like good cards stat wise also. 

SP is going to get hit hard today, between the level 200 Ford and the palmer release theres going to be a lot of SP getting replaced today. Remember also that 3B CP SP all get hit harder than other positions because of the level 200 pack rewards. I'm avoiding all 3 today, and I'd even add in 1b under 87. Those markets are going to struggle to come back up.  If you find them at 5k the market is safe, until then all those markets will be iffy on the low end and it will affect the middle to high end a bit also. 

The weekly pattern is going to be a little different this week. It's going to come down hard tonight, steady a little tonight, dip again tomorrow afternoon, then start rising Friday night through Saturday night.  Sunday will even out.  Monday through Wednesday is a downturn and also remember the RS reward packs midweek next week. So another midweek downturn. Rock bottom should be the next headliner release after the RS reward packs. 

Remember to be careful at 1b, 3b, SP, CP today. They're going to go down longer than the rest of the positions. The low end for buying depends on whether or not they remove the average market blocker. If they do remove it rock bottom will be tonight. If they dont remove it rock bottom might be tomorrow morning/afternoon. 

Theres also 5 headliner packs available for purchase this week, that usually adds to the supply. 

I'll keep updates going as I see stuff and I'll be around for questions. 

Good luck out there today. 

***Update****

Headliner 13 just got announced for Thursday, they're also adding an all star event, 4th inning content and then Tuesday the 25th the new RS starts. The new RS season means midweek reward packs, those always cause another midweek downturn. Make sure to adjust for this mentally today. You're only buying enough to sell this weekend. I'm guessing we want to sell off by Sunday night this weekend. Saturday night being optimal as usual. 

****Update****

Nothing new happening yet, just getting a thread started. 

Market is in a normal downturn Tuesday cycle right now. Expect it to even out Wednesday and go down Thursday with the pack release. 

The level 200 pack cards are starting to come down, if you're in the market I think theres more drop to them to come. You're going to want to avoid those position markets this weekend imo, 3rd, SP, CP. All 3 are going to get hammered at 90 and under and it will affect the mid and top ends a little also. These 3 positions are going to react differently to the rest of the market. Normally during these types of oversupplies I'll attack these markets specifically, this week I'm avoiding them specifically. 

3rd inning bosses aren't really moving up. I think it's because people aren't really enamored with the 4th inning bosses other than Wagner. Half the population seems to be iffy on the Henderson and Verlander. Just about everybody likes the alomar. I'd expect their markets to follow suit over the long run. 

4th inning bosses got cheaper faster than I thought. I have no idea where these drop to yet, we need to see another market cycle to get a rough estimate. But with the 4th inning collection only being worth the same 30k as the 3rd I think theres a chance these get pretty low. Keep an eye on the mccutchen, that card will tend to be the bottom card and will bring the others down. Whatever price range its bottoming out at is where the other 2 will soon follow. 

Stub sale officially over. By my estimate theres another week or two before the extra stubs get cycled out through the 10% tax and collections. If you're looking for the bottom on rebuying I think that's the time. 

I'll be pretty busy this week so I might not always respond as quickly as usual. But as always if you have any questions ask away, or feel free to add any ideas or theories. 

 

6/18/2019 6:45AM PDT

Good info thanks 

6/18/2019 7:19AM PDT

Thanks for the thread.

I'm officially burned out on flipping. Last night I did a couple of cards and the constant 1-stub underbidding was getting on my nerves. :)

I have 4 cards left for Mays now. I know I could probably save 10-20k by waiting until Friday but I probably won't. :)

I think the highest LS cards, like Trout and Lindor, are going to steadily go up due to dilution with more diamonds as we go along.

6/18/2019 7:19AM PDT

I want to finish off the AL set to get the Pudge. Right now the only cards I need are the diamond players from Yankees and Red Sox. Total its about 230k for those 6 cards. I'm tempted to pull the trigger for the XP and for the Bautista and Pudge, but I'm thinking waiting it out another week or so might be my best bet? I'm also wanting that Felix card to come down in price but it's not really doing it. Dilemma here

6/18/2019 7:24AM PDT

Yes, good info ITT. 

6/18/2019 7:28AM PDT

Instead of flipping or investing, have you tired exchanging? No risk involved and guaranteed stub increase.

6/18/2019 7:29AM PDT

Instead of flipping or investing, have you tired exchanging? No risk involved and guaranteed stub increase.

Comment by DethBaphomet
6/18/2019 7:29AM PDT

Bronze to silver is pretty effective if you have patience. Silver to gold isn’t good though. You need like 6 or 7 silvers to get the gold pack and selling those silvers usually will net you over 1000 stubs

6/18/2019 7:31AM PDT

Thanks Huck havent been posting much but Ive read enough in the past couple months that you know your stuff!

6/18/2019 7:34AM PDT
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Bronze to silver is pretty effective if you have patience. Silver to gold isn’t good though. You need like 6 or 7 silvers to get the gold pack and selling those silvers usually will net you over 1000 stubs

Comment by the_dragon1912
6/18/2019 7:31AM PDT

If you are good with numbers, then you go with least investment possible for highest yield. 4 can get you a gold for just over 1k if you pick the right players. 5 is a usually the cheaper option.

And you aren't looking to get back 1k, you looking for the Ramirez, Story and Votto cards which make profit.

6/18/2019 7:35AM PDT
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If you are good with numbers, then you go with least investment possible for highest yield. 4 can get you a gold for just over 1k if you pick the right players. 5 is a usually the cheaper option.

And you aren't looking to get back 1k, you looking for the Ramirez, Story and Votto cards which make profit.

Comment by DethBaphomet
6/18/2019 7:35AM PDT

Right. But that’s all based on pack luck. It may take a lot more time. But bronze to silver is guaranteed at least 100-150 profit, with the more likely chance to make more as there are way more silvers priced 500-700 than there are golds that are over 1k. You can make 400-500 stubs per exchange on silvers where as in the gold exchange market you would mostly make your stubs back. It’s just lower risk as exchanging silvers to get my 1k back is a waste of my time

6/18/2019 7:47AM PDT

I've never really tried exchanges for profit. This is interesting, thanks for sharing the info guys. 

6/18/2019 7:56AM PDT
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Right. But that’s all based on pack luck. It may take a lot more time. But bronze to silver is guaranteed at least 100-150 profit, with the more likely chance to make more as there are way more silvers priced 500-700 than there are golds that are over 1k. You can make 400-500 stubs per exchange on silvers where as in the gold exchange market you would mostly make your stubs back. It’s just lower risk as exchanging silvers to get my 1k back is a waste of my time

Comment by the_dragon1912
6/18/2019 7:47AM PDT

Eh, too each his own. 1 pack at a time is a waste and crap shoot, no different with Bronze to Silver. I'll do 30-50 packs a day and net a 50-60% profit. 

6/18/2019 7:59AM PDT

Thanks for the thread.

I'm officially burned out on flipping. Last night I did a couple of cards and the constant 1-stub underbidding was getting on my nerves. :)

I have 4 cards left for Mays now. I know I could probably save 10-20k by waiting until Friday but I probably won't. :)

I think the highest LS cards, like Trout and Lindor, are going to steadily go up due to dilution with more diamonds as we go along.

Comment by Qeltar_
6/18/2019 7:19AM PDT

They could, I just think they're so high right now they have to come down. The trout and lindor especially. The lindor could go up with the Ramirez downgrade but I feel like it already has gone up what it will. The Kluber should get the rest of that value added. 

But you're right, the cheaper the other cards get the more expensive these get. I also think as the McCutchen gets cheaper fewer people chase the lofton and May's. Which just keeps the demand even at some point. 

If it was me I'd wait for a big pack opening this weekend at least. 

Edit to add, that trout is also on a good upswing currently. Hes at or over 100 both contact and power on righties right now. So hes a little better than usual right now. 

6/18/2019 8:00AM PDT

My theory is that cards like Trout keep going up because my guess is the algorithm in a pack first rolls the OVR (or range) and then the card. At the start of the year, the number of 90+ diamonds in packs was small, so many of these were Trout. As the number of available diamonds increases, fewer Trouts. That plus the offset effect you mentioned where cheaper cards lead to others going up.

I just have Trout, Lindor, Chapman and Sale left. Even when done I'll have 800k stubs left over so I will probably just try to buy on dips like the last few. Some have already dropped down and I already made myself wait. :)

6/18/2019 8:04AM PDT

My theory is that cards like Trout keep going up because my guess is the algorithm in a pack first rolls the OVR (or range) and then the card. At the start of the year, the number of 90+ diamonds in packs was small, so many of these were Trout. As the number of available diamonds increases, fewer Trouts. That plus the offset effect you mentioned where cheaper cards lead to others going up.

I just have Trout, Lindor, Chapman and Sale left. Even when done I'll have 800k stubs left over so I will probably just try to buy on dips like the last few. Some have already dropped down and I already made myself wait. :)

Comment by Qeltar_
6/18/2019 8:04AM PDT

what we need is a POTM Trout with 97 ovr rating and then his price will drop ... hopefully : )

6/18/2019 8:39AM PDT

My theory is that cards like Trout keep going up because my guess is the algorithm in a pack first rolls the OVR (or range) and then the card. At the start of the year, the number of 90+ diamonds in packs was small, so many of these were Trout. As the number of available diamonds increases, fewer Trouts. That plus the offset effect you mentioned where cheaper cards lead to others going up.

I just have Trout, Lindor, Chapman and Sale left. Even when done I'll have 800k stubs left over so I will probably just try to buy on dips like the last few. Some have already dropped down and I already made myself wait. :)

Comment by Qeltar_
6/18/2019 8:04AM PDT

Yeah those are the 4 that are out whack too.  The Chapman and sale for sure will get cheaper with a pack release. I'd at least wait on those. Which means you might as well wait on the others. The lindor should go down also with a strong pack opening. The trout is always tricky but it's as high now as it was when it first came out almost. That's just too high without more stubs being in circulation. Theres not enough stubs to hold the 4th inning bosses up until the 2nd content release. 

6/18/2019 8:50AM PDT

Nah, not waiting. I mean.. I can make more stubs whenever I want and even now what am I going to do with the leftovers. :)

It's also easier to make stub on the cards I know how to flip than to micromanage these guys to save 5k.

Also.. they don't always behave as expected. I don't think Trout will see 120k again for months, if ever.

I actually have already had Lindor twice, but his price shot up so high that both times I flipped him for 5-6k profits, lol.

6/18/2019 8:54AM PDT
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what we need is a POTM Trout with 97 ovr rating and then his price will drop ... hopefully : )

Comment by jjar1125z
6/18/2019 8:39AM PDT

That would be nice. I think what they're going to do is just slowly keep upgrading it until its 99.  It's gone up since I've gotten mine and hes had an +1 inside edge most weeks. 

6/18/2019 8:57AM PDT

Nah, not waiting. I mean.. I can make more stubs whenever I want and even now what am I going to do with the leftovers. :)

It's also easier to make stub on the cards I know how to flip than to micromanage these guys to save 5k.

Also.. they don't always behave as expected. I don't think Trout will see 120k again for months, if ever.

I actually have already had Lindor twice, but his price shot up so high that both times I flipped him for 5-6k profits, lol.

Comment by Qeltar_
6/18/2019 8:54AM PDT

You could be right. I just see a huge spike in their prices since the stub sale, they dont have to drop to 125 again to be worth waiting for.  I think youd save 20 to 40k waiting for a pack release but it's not like 40k will break you either. 

I'm just giving you advice. I dont always take my own. I knew the Molina would be back to 135 if I just waited. I couldn't wait, paid 157k, today hes back to 135 and will probably drop more this weekend, I have zero regrets.  Paid 54k for brock when i knew hed drop under 50.  Sometimes you just gotta do it.  

6/18/2019 9:01AM PDT

It's all good, appreciate the advice.

I don't think Trout is going back down very much, though.

I already got Chapman at 47k, which is fine. I may overpay a little for Sale, just because he's an SP and they tank when they have a bad outing, but whatever. Sometimes you have to live a little. :)

6/18/2019 9:03AM PDT
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Right. But that’s all based on pack luck. It may take a lot more time. But bronze to silver is guaranteed at least 100-150 profit, with the more likely chance to make more as there are way more silvers priced 500-700 than there are golds that are over 1k. You can make 400-500 stubs per exchange on silvers where as in the gold exchange market you would mostly make your stubs back. It’s just lower risk as exchanging silvers to get my 1k back is a waste of my time

Comment by the_dragon1912
6/18/2019 7:47AM PDT

What’s the cheapest way to do the bronze to silver investment? 

6/18/2019 9:03AM PDT
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What’s the cheapest way to do the bronze to silver investment? 

Comment by TwinCity0712
6/18/2019 9:03AM PDT

It’s defon better if you have a lot of bronzes already but when I do It(which isn’t very often because it takes a lot of time), just buy as many 72-73s for 25-30 stubs as you can then load up on the silver packs. If you can get 74s for that low then do it but most of those are at least 60 stubs

6/18/2019 9:08AM PDT

Do we think Henderson and Alomar’s price will rise or will they stay steady around 100k? Thanks!

6/18/2019 10:16AM PDT

Do we think Henderson and Alomar’s price will rise or will they stay steady around 100k? Thanks!

Comment by ELTK13
6/18/2019 10:16AM PDT

They could go either way at this point. My guess is that they move up slowly over time because they're 99s still. But I think it takes awhile to see any real movement on these. If you're trying to offload I'd take 100k.

6/18/2019 10:18AM PDT

I don't think the 3rd inning bosses are going anywhere. All are cards most people would be happy to use until well toward the end of the year, and supply will dwindle every week from here on out (until they eventually re-release the inning bosses, which I think will happen in the off-season).

They may drift down a bit but then I think will drift back up. I got all three and had planned to sell Henderson but don't think I will at this point.

6/18/2019 10:22AM PDT

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